How to Hold the GOP Responsible
A Simple Way to Hold Trump Republicans Accountable
Republican members of congress voted against the constitutionally mandated certification of the election. They then voted against Trump’s impeachment for inciting an insurrection. Since January 2021, the party has introduced over 300 pieces of legislation designed to suppress voting in America. A handful of GOP representatives and senators had to the courage to reject these efforts.
There is a simple mechanism for quietly holding Trumpian republicans accountable for their actions.
Democrats, former republicans and independents who live in those legislators’ districts and states should register as republicans and vote in the GOP primaries in 2022 and 2024. Doing so would leverage the very tool to which many of the republicans owe the tenures - gerrymandering. Because gerrymandering has always had a fatal flaw, a giant hole in its armor. And through gerrymandering, the GOP has unwittingly paved a path to more moderate government.
When the republican gerrymandered, they were greedy in apportioning democrats to republican districts. As such, in gerrymandered republican districts, there are not enough democrats to elect a democratic legislator, ever. But there are often enough democrats to vote right wing conservatives out of office in the GOP primary and elect moderate or liberal republicans instead – if the democrats and independents strategically register as republicans. In other words, maximize the power of their votes by registering not based on their affinity for a party, but based on where their vote will do the most good for their strategic policy objectives.
When the parties gerrymander, they depend on these disempowered voters to not switch parties and to not be strategic.
As a result of the voters’ registrations, Republican gerrymandering (and non-republican voters’ acquiescence to it) has enabled the populist, far-right wing of the Republican party to exploit its voting strength in the GOP primaries to control the party. Their power has led to Trump’s leadership and enabled him to maintain his grip on the party. Now that he has left office, there is a fight for control of the GOP. If the Trump candidates in our next election don’t have competition in their primaries, they could further consolidate their control of the party. If Trump republicans have competition from moderate republican in the GOP primaries, their moderate opponents will need the support of moderate republicans to win elections. Furthermore, the ten republicans who had the courage to vote for Trump’s impeachment may be voted out of office, if they are not supported by moderate voters. There are 13 months until the 2022 elections, and voters should prepare for them now.
And in republican districts that are not gerrymandered, but rather where republicans have inherent geographic strength, the same calculus is true. There is no reason to be a democrat or independent if you can’t vote in the republican primaries - because your vote is of no value outside of the GOP primary.
In the republican districts of the republican house members who voted to overturn the election on January 6th, 2020, and those who voted to acquit Trump of insurrection, there are few logical reasons for a voter to be a democrat - because in those districts the democratic candidates will never win a general election (see Table 1*). The election outcome has been predetermined through gerrymandering (and/or geography) – whoever is the nominee from the republican primary will win the general election. On average, the republican members of congress won their congressional districts with a margin of victory of 22% of the total general election vote.
But the Trumpian republican representatives have significant numbers of democrat leaning voters (on average 132,768) in their districts, and because of those voters they could face a strong primary challenge from more moderate republicans. And on average, the GOP representatives’ general election democrat attracted more than three times (3X) as many democrat leaning voters as the republicans attracted in their last GOP primary (43,415)*. Indeed, in 155 of the 217 house districts, there were more than three times as many democratic voters as there were republican primary voters. The democratic leaning voters could elect a moderate republican through the primaries. Over time the districts, with moderate voters voting in them, would trend more moderate because their GOP representatives would need to be more moderate and independent in order to win their primary elections.
But in the past, the voters sat out the all-important GOP primary; the one chance that they have to make a difference. Instead, they futilely voted in the general election where in gerrymandered districts the election is designed to result in a republican victory, and where in naturally strong GOP districts the republican will also always win.
All voters in those districts should be registered republicans, even if the state has open primaries (because primary rules regarding party registrations can change, and because only republicans can serve on the GOP’s county committees).
Representatives Chip Roy of Texas and Andy Biggs of Arizona are examples of congressmen who serve in a safe republican seat during the general election. Roy won his district roughly 236,000 to 206,000, and Biggs won his 262,000 to 183,000 - winning by 7% and 15% of the vote, respectively (roughly their historic average). But in their last contested GOP primaries, Rep. Roy won his nomination with just 18,000 total votes and Rep. Biggs won his with 25,240 votes.
In their districts, there are six times as many democrat leaning voters (183,000) as Biggs attracted in his primaries (25,240), and twelve times as many as Roy attracted (206,000 to 18,084). If the voters were register republicans, they could vote for a moderate in the GOP primary, and they could always vote for a democrat in the general election. They would get two opportunities at unseating Representatives Roy and Biggs. Every election. And they have nothing to lose; their primary votes in democratic primaries are farcical.
Similar math applies to senators. In their states, the democratic voters in republican congressional districts could also supports primary challenges to republicans. Ron Johnson’s 2022 primary is one example of an opportunity to hold a prime Trump republican accountable. Johnson won his last primary with 504,644 total votes. In the 2020 Wisconsin election, 815,610 voters in the state’s five republican congressional districts voted for democrats (see Table 1). Red district voters in Wisconsin have the opportunity to register as republicans and vote against Johnson and their congressmen in the GOP primaries. Likewise, democrats and independents in red districts could vote in the primaries of the other 21 GOP senators that have elections in 2022. Many of those senators voted to acquit Trump twice.
Also, many of the January 6th Trump republicans may see well-funded primary challenges, as traditional republican donors have stated that they will no longer support the 148 members of congress who attempted to hijack the election on January 6th. Those donors remain sympathetic to traditional republican causes (and the constitution) and are looking to support capable challengers. GOP voter suppression laws have made fundraising even easier for primary GOP challengers. For example, congressmen like Biggs and Roy have said that they will not be accepting many corporations’ support that have traditional supported republicans.
The same is true of voters in other congressional districts where there are partisan primaries (17 Trump republicans are elected through nonpartisan primaries where the representatives already face all their district’s voters) and those where voters can vote in the either party’s primary (e.g. Georgia and Montana). People should choose to run in and vote in the primary of the party in power. Note: these dynamics can be seen in all 435 congressional districts and in state legislative elections as well.
Lastly, in 2020, the republicans won 172 seats in the state legislatures. They sought those seats to gerrymander themselves into further congressional strength in states like Texas. During the next gerrymandering process, to dilute the strength of democratic districts they will draw congressional district maps that include more liberal voters in GOP strong districts. In doing so, they will make gerrymandered republican districts more vulnerable to challenges from moderate candidates.
*We intend to post full data tables detailing the GOP’s electoral results, as they relate to strategic registration. Feel free to contribute on our website. We will use the funds to post better and more in-depth information.